Ather - The best electric scooter

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Ather Energy began its journey as an ambitious startup in 2013, founded by IIT Madras graduates Tarun Mehta and Swapnil Jain. Their vision was to revolutionize the Indian two-wheeler market by introducing "The Best Electric scooters". With the launch of the Ather 450X, the company gained widespread attention for its sleek design, advanced technology, and fast-charging infrastructure.

According to Ather’s co-founder, Tarun Mehta, one key factor is weaker marketing. Ather's product-first approach didn't match Ola’s aggressive, high-visibility strategy, which pushed Ola to a mass-market audience. Ola’s approach combined competitive pricing, mass-market targeting, and a wider product range—giving them an edge in a price-sensitive market.

Valuing Ather Energy: The Road Ahead

To estimate Ather's value, we must first look at the Total Addressable Market (TAM) for two-wheelers in India.

The Indian two-wheeler market was valued at approximately ₹1.5 lakh crore in 2023-24, with 15-20 million units sold annually. This market is expected to grow at 8-10% CAGR, reaching a size of ₹2.7 lakh crore by 2034. Moreover, as government incentives and technological advancements push consumers toward electric vehicles, 80% of two-wheelers could be electric in the next decade.


What’s Driving the Electric Revolution?

1. Government Support: Schemes like FAME II offer subsidies for EV buyers and manufacturers, encouraging mass adoption.


2. Phase-out of ICE Vehicles: By 2040, internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles may be phased out due to environmental regulations.


3. Technological Breakthroughs: Improvements in battery technology will make EVs more affordable and efficient.


4. Cost Parity: As battery prices fall and production scales, electric two-wheelers are expected to achieve price parity with ICE models.



Revenue Projections: Ather’s Future Market Share

By 2034, the Indian electric two-wheeler market is projected to reach ₹2.2 lakh crore, with electric scooters comprising 65% of total sales. This gives Ather Energy a total addressable market (TAM) of ₹1.43 lakh crore in the electric scooter segment. If Ather captures 15% of this market, it could potentially generate ₹21,500 crore in annual revenue by 2034.



EBIT Margin: Can Ather Scale Profitably?

Ather’s current margins are constrained by high R&D and manufacturing costs. However, as the company scales operations and benefits from economies of scale and falling battery costs, EBIT margins could rise to 12% over the next decade. While competition will remain fierce, Ather’s focus on product excellence and operational efficiency will support long-term profitability.


Reinvestment Plans: Expanding Capacity

Ather currently operates two manufacturing plants in Hosur, Tamil Nadu, with a combined capacity of 420,000 vehicles per year, producing 430,000 battery packs annually. To further boost production, Ather is establishing a third plant in Maharashtra’s Aurangabad Industrial City (AURIC), which will add an additional 1 million units to its annual capacity. This expansion will elevate Ather’s total production capability to 1.42 million units per year.

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Data & Spreadsheets

If you want a guide through this spreadsheet, try this YouTube video that takes you through each input cell: Video Guide  

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